Plenty of profitable businesses run out of cash. That sounds like a contradiction, but it happens all the time, and it is usually the thing that ends an otherwise healthy operation. A cashflow forecast is the tool that keeps you ahead of it.
This is a practical guide to building a simple rolling forecast you can maintain yourself. No jargon, no heavy modelling, just a clear view of the money moving in and out of your bank account week by week.
Why Profit Is Not Cash
Profit is an accounting concept. It records a sale the moment you raise the invoice, even if the customer pays you in 60 days. Cash is what is actually sitting in your bank account today.
The gap between the two is timing. You can book a strong month on paper while your account drains, because wages, rent and supplier bills land before the customer money arrives. A profit and loss statement will not warn you about that. A cashflow forecast will.
The other trap is the obligations that never appear on a profit and loss line at all. GST you have collected, super you owe and loan principal repayments all leave your account, yet none is an expense in the accounting sense. They are real cash going out the door.
The Case for a 13-Week Rolling Forecast
Thirteen weeks is one quarter. It is long enough to see a squeeze coming and short enough that your numbers stay realistic rather than guesswork.
The word that matters is “rolling”. Each week you drop off the week just gone and add a new week 13 to the end, so you always hold a full quarter ahead. You update it against what actually happened, then look forward again.
A spreadsheet is all you need. Weeks run across the top as columns; your line items run down the side. The free cashflow templates on business.gov.au are a sensible starting point if you would rather not build from scratch.
The Inputs You Need
Start with your opening bank balance. This is the single most important number, because everything else builds from it. Use the real cleared figure, not what your accounting software thinks you are owed.
Then list your receipts (cash coming in), and place each one in the week you genuinely expect the money to land, not the week you raised the invoice. Be honest about how your customers actually pay.
- Customer payments, timed to your real collection pattern
- Any other income such as interest, rebates or grants
- GST you collect on sales, which sits in your account until the next BAS
Next, list your payments (cash going out), again in the week each one leaves your account:
- Wages and PAYG withholding on your pay run dates
- Superannuation for your team
- Supplier and overhead bills on their due dates
- BAS and GST payments
- Income tax and PAYG instalments
- Loan and finance repayments
- Owner drawings
Modelling the Timing and the Tax Deadlines
Timing is where forecasts earn their keep, and the tax and super deadlines are the lumpiest items most owners face.
Super guarantee is currently paid quarterly for many employers, due 28 days after each quarter ends (28 October, 28 January, 28 April and 28 July). A major change is coming: from 1 July 2026, under the Payday Super reforms, employers will need to pay super with each pay run rather than quarterly, with contributions to reach the fund within a set number of business days of payday. [Verify the current rules and start date with the ATO], because this reshapes how super sits in your forecast. Whichever applies to you, model super on the dates the cash actually leaves, not when you accrue it.
Quarterly BAS is generally due on the 28th of the month after each quarter, with the December quarter falling later (around late February) and possible extensions if you lodge online or through a registered agent. [Verify your due dates and any extension against the ATO.] Income tax and PAYG instalments land on their own schedule.
The super rate and these dates change, so check the current figure and deadline at ato.gov.au rather than working from memory. Put each obligation in the correct week as a known, dated outflow. These are not surprises; they are diary entries.
Running Scenarios
A single forecast tells you one story. Two or three scenarios tell you the range you are actually operating in.
Build a base case using your most likely assumptions. Then build a downside: a large customer pays a fortnight late, a quiet month or a key contract slips. Stress the timing as well as the amounts, because late payment is the most common cause of a cash squeeze.
If the downside takes your running balance below zero in any week, you have found a problem worth solving now, while you still have options. That is the entire point of the exercise.
Using It to Spot a Squeeze Early
The number to watch is your projected closing bank balance at the end of each week. Run it as a single row across the bottom of your forecast and scan it.
Any week that dips toward zero or below is a flag. Because you are looking 13 weeks ahead, you usually have time to act calmly: chase receivables, agree a payment plan with a supplier, time a purchase differently or arrange finance before you are forced to. The deadline weeks around BAS, super and tax are the usual pinch points, so watch those columns closely.
Cash squeezes rarely arrive without warning. A rolling forecast simply makes the warning visible while you can still do something about it.
How Foothold Advisory Can Help
A forecast is only as good as the assumptions behind it, and the deadline calendar that drives it. If you would like a second set of eyes, Foothold Advisory can help you build a rolling cashflow forecast, map your tax and super obligations to the right weeks and pressure-test your scenarios.
Book a Funding Health Check with Foothold Advisory and walk away with a clear view of your next quarter and where the pinch points sit.
General information only. This article provides general information about Australian tax and business concepts and is current as at its publication date. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not tax, financial or legal advice. Foothold Advisory is not a registered tax agent. Tax laws and figures change and apply differently depending on your circumstances. Before acting, obtain advice from a registered tax agent and verify all figures against the ATO.