Initial submissions to the Fair Work Commission’s Annual Wage Review 2026 were filed on 27 March 2026; the gap between the two sides is wide. The ACTU is seeking an increase of around 5%. Employer groups, the Housing Industry Association among them, argue for around 3.5%. The government has also lodged a submission. The decision is expected around mid-year and would take effect from the first full pay period on or after 1 July 2026.
We are not going to predict where the Commission lands. What we can do is help you plan for the range.
Where the floor sits today
The national minimum wage is currently $24.95 an hour or $948.00 a week. Award minimums sit above that across hundreds of classifications; the Annual Wage Review decision flows through to both. Submissions, timetables and eventually the decision itself are published on the Fair Work Commission’s Annual Wage Review 2026 page.
Early childhood employers are already living it
One sector got its rise early. The Children’s Services Award rose 5% from the first full pay period on or after 1 March 2026, the first instalment of the Fair Work Commission’s gender undervaluation review, which also introduced a new 8-level classification structure. A second instalment applies from 30 June 2026.
For early childhood employers, July’s question is already this quarter’s reality. For everyone else, that sector is a useful preview: a material rise plus a reworked classification structure is exactly the combination that catches payroll teams out when it arrives all at once.
Budget the range, not the headline
The sensible move now is to model both ends of the claims. Build your 2026-27 staffing budget twice: once at 3.5% and once at 5% from 1 July. The difference between those two scenarios, across your full headcount and a full year, is the number that tells you whether the decision is a rounding error or a pricing conversation.
If the gap is material, you have three months to think about rosters, pricing and hiring plans calmly, rather than three weeks to react in June.
Check your award coverage while you are at it
A wage review is a natural prompt to confirm the basics:
- Which awards actually cover your people? Coverage follows the work performed, not the job title on the contract
- Are classifications right? Misclassification is one of the most common underpayment causes; a rate rise compounds any existing error
- Who is above award? Award rises flow through to above-award staff via relativities and expectations, even where there is no legal obligation to pass them on
That last point deserves emphasis in your budgeting. If your senior people sit $2 an hour above the award today and the award moves, holding their rate flat changes their position relative to the market and to their own team. Plenty of employers budget the legal minimum and are then surprised by the real cost of July.
What to do this month
- Run the 3.5% and the 5% scenarios through your staffing budget from 1 July
- Confirm award coverage and classification for every role
- Map which above-award arrangements will come under pressure if the floor moves
- Watch for the decision around mid-year and be ready to update pay runs for the first full pay period on or after 1 July 2026
Before you act
This article is general information only and is not legal or financial advice. Award coverage and classification questions can be technical, so confirm your position with a workplace relations lawyer or check the official Fair Work Commission materials before acting.